Photo : Helmut Fohringer/ dpa / Spiegal
13 February 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #435
War in Ukraine: Days 353 and 354
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 11 February, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry Main Intelligence Directorate Spokesman Andrii Cherniak claimed that Russia does not have the resources to launch a “large-scale” attack on 24 February. Cherniak said that Russia looks to intensify its offensive and achieve success in eastern Ukraine. He added: “The Russians have already utilized more than 80 per cent of their high-precision missiles,” and said that it is “facing a shortage of high-precision weapons.” He said that Russia is looking to restore production but has not been successful.
On 12 February, Ukraine's border guards reported a continued counteroffensive in Bakhmut where 11 Russian personnel were killed. In a statement: “In Luhansk region, our mortars destroyed several dugouts of the Russian occupying forces along with enemy manpower.” They also reported that the guard's artillery had downed four infantry groups in Bakhmut, a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and engaged in positional counter-offensives to push the Russian forces out of the suburban areas.
On 12 February, Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko commented on Ukraine's capacity of energy sources. Galushchenko said: “We started to diversify nuclear fuel supplies for our nuclear generation even before Russia unleashed full-scale aggression.” He said that by 24 February 2022, Ukraine was receiving half of its fuel from the US and the other half from Russia. He said that Ukraine has ceased all exports of nuclear fuel to Russia.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 11 February, Russia's Foreign Deputy Minister Sergey Vershinin accused the EU for declining Russia-EU relations. According to Vershinin, Russia-EU relations is at the lowest: “It is bad in terms of world international relations and international stability.” He claimed that the lack of political dialogue between the EU and Russia on the EU side for many years was the reason for the declining relationship.
On 12 February, Russia's Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko said that Russia does not “believe” in the successful outcomes of any peace talks with Ukraine. Botsan-Kharchenko said: “Because of what has happened, because of the lies about the Minsk agreements, about NATO’s expansion.”
On 12 February, the Russia's cabinet submitted a proposal to the State Duma that “limits the discounts for the Urals oil blend on the international market.” This will also be used by the government when leaving taxes on oil producers. Currently, Russia uses oil price estimates by Argus for levying taxes. The bill proposes to levy an oil extraction tax on Urals oil sold at a price with a discount compared to a barrel of Brent oil blend. This bill was introduced to set up independent indigenous oil-price estimation companies.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 February, SPIEGEL, a German news outlet reported that the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) will begin Leopard 2 main battle tanks training Ukrainian personnel next week. It said that the training will take place at the Munster military training ground in Germany. The training period will last from six to eight weeks and will only cover the basics due to the short period. The Ukrainian soldiers will be trained to operate the weapons system of the tanks and how they work alongside the Marder infantry fighting vehicle. The trained personnel and the tanks will reportedly be deployed at the end of March at the frontlines of the conflict.
On 12 February, the UK Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia has suffered the highest amount of casualties in the last two weeks since the beginning of the conflict. The report referred to the Ukrainian General Staff's daily statistics on Russian casualties where the mean average for the past week was 824 casualties per day. This is four times the number of casualties reported in June-July 2022. The Defence Intelligence attributed the increase in casualties to factors such as a lack of trained Russian soldiers, coordination and resources at the frontlines which can be seen in Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
On 10 February, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) spokesman Fabian Maienfisch said that it had rejected the request made by Spain for the re-export of anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. The Spanish authorities had filed a request on 16 January 2023 for the re-export of two 35-millimetre anti-aircraft guns of Swiss origin to Ukraine. Maienfisch said: “With reference to the principle of equal treatment under the law of neutrality and... the War Material Act, the requests were answered negatively by Switzerland.” Switzerland has previously rejected two other requests to transfer Swiss-origin military equipment to Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 11 February, the Associated Press reported that a proposed resolution titled “Principles underlying a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine '' has been circulated in the UNGA. The draft resolution underlines the need for peace and looks to ensure Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.” The draft is broader and less detailed when compared to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyys 10-point-peace plan. The report said that the draft proposal was circulated to all the UNGA members except Russia and Belarus. The draft proposal reiterates an immediate, unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian troops, and urges member states to consider any territory annexed by force as illegal. The proposal also pushes for a “complete exchange” of prisoners of war (POWs), treatment of all POWs, internees and detainees as per the Geneva convention and the release of all the people detained. Additionally, it also calls for the return of all civilians and internees transferred and deported. The draft also calls for international solidarity to address the global impact of the war on various sectors and condemn the human rights abuses and humanitarian consequences of the war in Ukraine. The UNGA is said to meet on 22 February for an emergency session.
References
“Invaders trying to find weak spots in Ukrainian defenses - intelligence,” Ukrinform, 11 February 2023
“Bakhmut update: Border guards counterattack, eliminating 11 Russian invaders, downing UAV,” Ukrinform, 12 February 2023
“Ukraine “completely independent” from Russia on nuclear fuel - minister,” Ukrinform, 12 February 2023
“Russia-EU relations at lowest ebb, with Brussels being driving force — diplomat,” TASS, 11 February 2023
“Russia doesn’t believe in success of peace talks with Kiev — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 12 February 2023
“Russian cabinet proposes bill to set Urals oil price for tax purposes,” TASS, 12 February 2023
Matthias Gebauer “Bundeswehr begins training Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 2,” SPIEGEL, 11 February 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 12 February 2023,” Twitter, 12 February 2023
“Switzerland blocks transfer of arms from Spain to Ukraine,” The Local.ch, 11 February 2023
Edith M.Lederer “UN draft resolution: Any peace must keep Ukraine intact,” AP News, 11 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
TURKEY
Turkey to hold contractors responsible for their negligence
On 12 February, Politico reported that over the weekend the Turkey government arrested contractors over their neglect and flaw in construction. Vice President Fuat Oktay announced that the government traced down 131 individuals, and 114 were taken in which lead to the death of thousands of people. The Justice Ministry ordered to set up of “Earthquake Crimes Investigation Departments” and appointed prosecutors to investigate the responsible party. The opposition blamed the president for the ill-preparedness for the catastrophe and the mismanagement of funds and taxes which were given after the 1999 major earthquake to make buildings more earthquake-proof. German and Austrian teams have cited security issues caused by clashes between people looting and gunfire incidents. The Greek Foreign minister paid a visit to Turkey to mend the relationship after the earthquake. The current death toll in Turkey is 33,000 with many still under the rubble and the rescue mission still on. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Turkey cracks down on contractors of quake-struck buildings,” Politico, 12 February 2023)
FRANCE
Pension reform protest, Union states to ramp the strike
On 11 February, in France, thousands of protesters took to the street to protest against the Pension reform plans. The protest saw another huge gathering while there was no call for a nationwide strike, the air traffic controllers in Paris walked out resulting in the cancellation of flights. Emmanuel Macron aims to increase the age of retirement from 62- 64, CGT union stated that 500,000 people protested led by France's eight main unions. The union stated that it would bring France to a standstill on March 7 if the government were deaf to popular mobilization. Macron requested the union to be responsible and not block the life of the rest of the country. (“Hundreds of thousands protest across France against pension reform, unions vow to ramp up strikes,” France 24, 11 February 2023)
SPAIN
Spain, thousands march against the regional management of healthcare services
On 12 February, in Madrid thousand of Spain, citizens marched to protest against the regional government's management of health care services. Over 250,000 rallied to the city Centre shouting “The right to health is a human right. Defend the health service.” Left-wing parties and concerned citizens also backed the health worker union that joined the protest. The regional chief blames the left political interest for motivating such protests ahead of elections. The healthcare worker stated that the regional chief Diaz Ayuso administration spent the least amount on primary healthcare. (“Hundreds of thousands march in Spain to demand better primary healthcare,” Euronews, 12 February 2023)
CYPRUS
Cyprus appoints new president Nikos Christodoulides
On 12 February, Nikos Christodoulides was elected president of Cyprus, he was the former foreign minister who won 51 per cent defeating a fellow diplomat. Nikos defected from DISY conservative ruling party and ran independently. The voter turnout was 72.4 per cent, the new government would be under pressure to work on corruption issues, energy bills, the economy, and labour disputes. While the main agenda would be the divided island which has internally split the nation to be part of the new leader's goal. (“Cyprus ex-foreign minister Christodoulides elected youngest president,” France 24, 12 February 2023)
FINLAND
Finland wants to be part of NATO by July and wants the US to urge Turkey
On 11 February, the associated press reported that the Finnish president wants Finland and Sweden to be part of NATO by July and indirectly hinted at the US to put pressure on Turkey. If the issue is dragged then it would be hard to join the alliance. NATO needs unanimous approval from all existing members to admit a new one. Hungary and Tukey are the nations that haven’t approved this membership, while Hungary plans to pledge by February. Turkey has shown no interest in ratifying the accession. This hold-off come in sight of the Quran burning that happened in Sweden and the series of demonstration by activist outside the Turkish embassy. (“Finnish president wants Finland, Sweden in NATO by summer,” Associated Press, 11 February 2023)
POLAND
Polish president passes crucial bill to tribunal inspection, can cause loss of funds from EU
On 10 February, Poland President Duda refused to sign the legislation for a crucial bill with judicial reforms and put it back to a constitutional tribunal where they would find out if it abode by the Polish constitution body. This can be crucial for the Polish economy as this bill would have gotten billions from EU recovery funds, it is an agreement between Brussels and Warsaw that need to release EUR 36 billion in grants and loans. Pis party was looking for the fund before the coming elections. The tribunal is also very much influenced by the PiS. The European Commission will not release the fund until the bill is a law which would give Brussels some independence from the Polish government and end sanctions against judges who raised questions against fellow judges. (“Duda throws Poland’s EU cash plans into turmoil, ” Politico, 13 February 2023)
RUSSIA
Russian cargo ship leaks coolant, no dangerous threat to the crew
On 12 February, the associated press reported that a supply ship docked at the International Space station has leaked coolant the hatch between the station and Progress MS-21 is locked therefore it poses no dangerous threats to the crew ROSCOSMOS. This comes after the announcement was made about the Russian cargo stationing. The crew were supposed to use the Soyuz capsule to come back in March but would be replaced with a new capsule on 20 February in case of emergency. (Vladimir Isachenkov “Russian spacecraft leaks coolant, station crew reported safe,” Associated Press, 12 February 2023)
PARIS
Protests in Paris to list IRGC as a terrorist organization
On 12 February, Iran's ruling authorities rallied in Paris to list Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Iran has been engaged in a violent crackdown on protestors by executing and detaining them. The ties were shunned between the EU and Tehran when they supplied drones to Russia to aid the war against Ukraine. This erupted last September when a young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini died after being detained by the morality police. While some are pushing for IRGC to be listed, many may see this as a way to break ties with Iran affecting any negotiations on nuclear talks. (Michaela Cabrera and Noemie Olive “Opposition groups rally in France demanding EU list Iran's Guards as terrorist group,” Reuters, 12 February 2023)